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When it comes to the
Grammys shaking their notorious conservatism and breaking free of their
tendency to honor commercial success rather than the stated "musical
excellence and innovation," it is often two steps forward and one step back.
In 2004, the sometimes
staid voters of the Recording Academy surprised many music lovers and
veteran Grammy handicappers by honoring Chicago producer and rapper Kanye
West with a nearly unprecedented 10 nominations for his debut album, "The
College Dropout."
Alas, when the awards
were handed out, West claimed only three of those golden gramophones, and he
lost the major prizes for best new artist and song, and album of the year.
Two steps forward, one back.
Among the 2005
contenders, West and John Legend, the R&B singer he produced, are two of the
top three multiple nominees, with eight Grammy nods each. But industry
insiders say the Recording Academy seems poised to ignore the Crazy 8s and
give many of its top honors to longtime Grammy favorite Mariah Carey for her
much ballyhooed comeback album.
Overproduced, formulaic
and riddled with cliches, it's difficult to hear the musical excellence and
innovation in "The Emancipation of Mimi" -- I gave it 1-1/2 stars upon its
release last April -- but for reasons beyond my comprehension, it has sold
phenomenally well, standing at more than 5 million copies in the United
States.
It would be nothing
short of a travesty for the Grammys to heap honors on Carey's disc while
ignoring West's "Late Registration," an even more inventive and challenging
effort than his debut. But as I point out every year around this time, the
Grammys have given us plenty of travesties since the awards were established
in 1957 by the music industry's old guard as a reaction to that horrible new
scourge of rock 'n' roll.
Examples? How about the
academy dumping Grammys on the likes of Perry Como and Doris Day through the
late '50s while shutting out those rock hooligans Chuck Berry, Little
Richard and Buddy Holly, or ignoring Bob Dylan and the Rolling Stones when
they were at the height of the talents in the '60s, or taking nearly a
decade to recognize the importance of hip-hop?
For these reasons,
Grammy-bashing is a tried and true pursuit for hard-core music fans. But for
all their flaws, the awards remain the most credible in popular music. So
every year, we hope that the more than 10,000 musicians, educators and
music-industry professionals who comprise the voting members of the
Recording Academy will remember the organization's ideals, and maybe get
things right.
Predicting the final
decision of this large and diverse group is famously difficult, and probably
a fool's errand. But I've never let that stop me before. Here, then, is my
annual look at some of the key categories for the 48th annual Grammy Awards,
which will be presented Wednesday at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.
Record of
the year (awarded to the performer and producer of a single track)
The nominees:
Mariah Carey, "We Belong Together"; Gorillaz featuring De La Soul, "Feel
Good Inc."; Green Day, "Boulevard of Broken Dreams"; Gwen Stefani, "Hollaback
Girl"; Kanye West, "Gold Digger."
Predicted winner:
Carey, for commercial rather than artistic accomplishments, for the reasons
stated above.
Most worthy: In
terms of its sheer creativity, the playfulness of its lyrics and its
irresistible hooks, West had the record of the year.
Sadly overlooked:
LCD Soundsystem, "Daft Punk Is Playing in My House."
Album of
the Year
The nominees:
Mariah Carey, "The Emancipation of Mimi"; Paul McCartney, "Chaos and
Creation in the Backyard"; Gwen Stefani, "Love. Angel. Music. Baby."; U2,
"How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb"; Kanye West, "Late Registration."
Predicted winner:
Conservative voters may be split here between Carey and paying homage to
those old warhorses McCartney and U2. I'll go out on a limb and say that
will clear the way for West to claim a prize he clearly deserves.
Most worthy:
Hometown hero West.
Sadly overlooked:
Our other Chicago superstar rapper, Common for "Be."
Song of
the Year
(awarded to the
songwriter)
The nominees:
Rascal Flatts, "Bless the Broken Road" (Bobby Boyd, Jeff Hanna & Marcus
Hummon, songwriters); Bruce Springsteen, "Devils & Dust"; John Legend,
"Ordinary People" (W. Adams & J. Stephens, songwriters); U2, "Sometimes You
Can't Make It on Your Own"; Mariah Carey, "We Belong Together" (J. Austin,
M. Carey, J. Dupri & M. Seal, songwriters).
Predicted winner:
This is the saddest of the major categories this year: We have U2 and
Springsteen going through the motions, a token nod to a country act and
Carey raking in the cash. She will probably win.
Most worthy:
Red-hot R&B comer Legend.
Sadly overlooked:
The Black Eyed Peas, "My Humps." Yes, it was a guilty pleasure, but the
emphasis is on the pleasure.
Best new
artist
The nominees:
Ciara, Fall Out Boy, Keane, John Legend, SugarLand.
Predicted winner:
Another rather pathetic slate. In this company, there's no question that
Legend is the most significant artist -- and that's no slight to suburban
Chicago pop-punks Fall Out Boy, who were shocked themselves at this
nominations.
Most worthy:
Legend.
Sadly overlooked:
The English New Wave of New Wave dance band, the Go! Team.
Pop vocal
album
The nominees:
Fiona Apple, "Extraordinary Machine"; Kelly Clarkson, "Breakaway"; Sheryl
Crow, "Wildflower"; Paul McCartney, "Chaos and Creation in the Backyard";
Gwen Stefani, "Love. Angel. Music. Baby."
Predicted winner:
I'm betting voters will jump at the chance to honor venerated elder Sir
Paul.
Most worthy: If
we consider the disc that had the most impact in the pop world in 2005, the
prize has to go to Stefani.
Sadly overlooked:
The New Pornographers, "Twin Cinema" -- truly great pop music, even if it
wasn't as commercially popular as any of these discs.
Rock
album
The nominees:
Coldplay, "X&Y"; Foo Fighters, "In Your Honor"; the Rolling Stones, "A
Bigger Bang"; U2, "How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb"; Neil Young, "Prairie
Wind."
Predicted winner:
It's likely that the elders here (Young, who deserves the nod, and the
Stones, who don't) will cancel each other out, as will Coldplay and the Foo
Fighters, allowing Grammy voters to once again declare the devotion to U2.
Most worthy:
Coldplay.
Sadly overlooked:
The White Stripes, "Get Behind Me Satan."
Alternative music album
The nominees: The
Arcade Fire, "Funeral"; Beck, "Guero"; Death Cab for Cutie, "Plans"; Franz
Ferdinand, "You Could Have It So Much Better"; the White Stripes, "Get
Behind Me Satan."
Predicted winner:
This is a hard one to call, since voters will be familiar with Franz
Ferdinand and the White Stripes from recent appearances on the Grammy show,
and they probably know Death Cab from "The O.C." But Beck is the biggest
name, so I'll give it to him as their uninspired choice.
Most worthy: The
Arcade Fire -- though "Funeral" was actually released in September 2004.
(The Grammys continue to define the voting year by odd parameters; for
instance, the year 2005 was Oct. 1, 2004, to Sept. 30, 2005, but even by
their wacky calendar, "Funeral" doesn't qualify. Go figure.)
Sadly overlooked:
Moby, "Hotel."
Dance
recording
The nominees: The
Chemical Brothers featuring Q-Tip, "Galvanize"; Deep Dish, "Say Hello";
Fatboy Slim & Lateef, "Wonderful Night"; LCD Soundsystem, "Daft Punk Is
Playing at My House"; Kylie Minogue, "I Believe in You"; New Order, "Guilt
Is a Useless Emotion."
Predicted winner:
Overrated British dance diva Minogue, the only name in the field that
mainstream voters are likely to recognize.
Most worthy: LCD
Soundsystem.
Sadly overlooked:
Ladytron, "International Dateline."
R&B album
The nominees:
Earth, Wind and Fire, "Illumination"; Fantasia, "Free Yourself"; Alicia
Keys, "Unplugged"; John Legend, "Get Lifted"; Stevie Wonder, "A Time to
Love."
Predicted winner:
Legend -- but that's based on the guess that Grammy voters are as befuddled
as I am about the distinction between this category and "best contemporary
R&B album" (those nominees: Amerie, Mariah Carey, Destiny's Child, Mario and
Omarion).
Most worthy:
Legend.
Sadly overlooked:
Leela James, "A Change Is Gonna Come."
Rap album
The nominees:
Common, "Be"; Missy Elliott, "The Cookbook"; Eminem, "Encore"; 50 Cent, "The
Massacre"; Kanye West, "Late Registration."
Predicted winner:
While Elliott is a great talent, this was not her best disc, and the nods to
Eminem and 50 Cent will likely cancel each other. That leaves a duel between
West and his mentor Common, a tough call, since both artists delivered
stellar efforts. Maybe voters will honor West in the big categories of album
and record of the year, and give this award to Common. (We can hope.)
Most worthy:
Common.
Sadly overlooked:
Saul Williams, "Saul Williams."
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